Range-position bounce on liquid index futures, after costs
Specification. Close in the bottom quintile of the day’s range predicts next-session mean reversion, conditional on a longer-horizon trend filter. Lag-1 execution; realistic exchange and clearing costs.
Evidence. The submitted backtest’s in-sample Sharpe is not the result. After costs and lag-1 fills it compresses sharply. The held-out 2018–2020 window is positive but concentrated; the 2020 crash window is a wash.
Challenge. The parameter neighbourhood is unstable below the stated threshold. The trend overlay is doing real work — remove it and the effect disappears.
Verdict — IncubateShadow-run with the trend overlay and monitor live fills for a quarter. Do not allocate on the original specification.